I can assume that we are experiencing a range of enrollment trends as we start the Spring term at our institutions. The National Clearinghouse indicated that for the 2025 Fall term, overall enrollment at institutions of higher learning increased just over 1%. As eCampus News suggested in their article, “Rethinking higher ed enrollment trends for a plateau era”, Higher education has entered a plateau era–not defined by temporary fluctuations, but by long-term demographic and behavioral shifts that are reshaping how institutions must operate.
In other words, the higher education world we have known – with predictable increases in enrollment – is over for most of us. A variety of factors are combining to impact our enrollments, including:
- Decline in high school graduates (number of traditional students declining)
- Perceived decline in higher education’s relevance and ROI
- Ever-increasing costs/new culture resistant to taking on student debt
- Increased competition
- Questions of economic sustainability for the higher education business model
- Negative impacts from reductions in Federal programs and support for higher education
This is a very serious issue. We have already been witnessing the consolidation and closure of a growing number of institutions. We can expect even more of this going forward. Institutions that survive will need to take a very proactive approach to this challenge. And higher education will have to rethink and reimagine our modalities and attainment options. Alternatives include:
- Accelerated degrees
- Reducing the credits/time to complete degrees
- Implementing alternative credentials
- Pivot to Active Adult Learners focusing on improved access, services and flexible instruction
- Increased options for asynchronous online classes/degrees
- Expanded use of technology for related student services (AI)
It is also anticipated, that if we do experience a national recession during 2026, it will be different from the last event – the Great Recession. Many of you will recall that most campuses experienced a sizable increase in enrolments as those who lost jobs turned to especially community colleges for retraining. The next recession will likely NOT have the financial support from the Federal Government to underwrite student expenses for retooling nor will campuses receive sustainability funding like it did during the recent pandemic.
Advanced planning is the best way to deal with the “enrollment plateau” if your campus is entering that stage. Cost control is critical as well as exploring creative alternatives as identified above.
Recommended Reading
Survey: Students Lukewarm On AI Courses, Inside Higher Ed
More than 56 percent of respondents said they are required to use AI in coursework and 63 percent said they use it for some of their assignments, but the majority said they mainly use it for low-level tasks such as editing, generating text, brainstorming and explaining concepts.
Encryptionless Extortion On The Rise As Ransomware Groups Shift Tactics, Campus Technology
Ransomware attacks continued to climb in 2025 as attackers increasingly timed operations around year-end staffing gaps and shifted away from traditional file encryption
Interviewing The Future – A Self-Conversation On Higher Education, AI And What Comes Next, eCampus News
Will colleges and universities remain sites of human development, or become credentialing platforms optimized for efficiency alone?
Could Artificial General Intelligence Become A Reality?, EdTech Magazine
If achieved, AGI could have powerful applications throughout K–12 and higher education, with the potential to entirely reshape teaching, learning and assessment.
The Case For Embedded Digital Accessibility, Educause
Institutions that integrate accessibility into their digital infrastructure are better positioned to meet legal requirements, enhance student experiences and outcomes, and expand their reach and competitiveness.
Higher Ed Talent Reckoning: Retirements, AI And Retention, Educause
Higher education faces a workforce crisis driven by converging forces: retirements, role changes driven by artificial intelligence, and shifting employee expectations. This discussion brings together insights from workforce data and executive search experience.
Video Of The Week
The Future Of Work 2030, YouTube
